I think markets have started to pay attention to excessive leverages that seem to now unravel with the Evergrande Group making some multiple headlines. I still haven’t changed my stance regarding excessive leverages that are hidden within the market and how it will bring corrections to global financial markets (https://songsari.medium.com/time-to-be-short-term-pessimistic-long-term-optimistic-financial-markets-3efa9a1c55c1)
Regarding Bitcoin, I think it is acting quite differently then previous market cycles. I still stand by my belief that 30k will actually hold (https://songsari.medium.com/my-stand-reversal-on-bitcoin-price-c4b3d7332e6c). If Evergrande does indeed default and markets corrects steeply, then I think it could indeed do some serious damage, but I think then the market will actually recover quite quickly as the Chinese goverment will probably step in to do some damage control.
Long term wise, I think Nasdaq will start to correct during the end of the year, though it is possible that it does not happen this year, but during the first half of 2022. Bitcoin will probably hit 100k+ during that period. Two major cataylsts for bringing crypto market back on track would be the anticipated Bitcoin Taproot upgrade and the launch of Diem. Having seen how both the upgrades for Etherem and Cardano helped bring momentum to the crypto market, I think the Taproot upgrade will also bring some momentum to the crypto market and I anticipate the build up to start happening in October.
Also, as a side note, some people see the Evergrande crisis similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. However, I don’t think that is the case. I think it would be more apt to perceive Evergrande crisis similar to the event of Bear Sterns that started to draw public attention during June 2007. I think we have to perceive the Evergrande crisis as a prelude to something bigger that is about to come, as I am highly confident that failed risk management with excessive leverages isn’t just Evergrande’ problem, but more a pervasive and widespread problem among many corporate companies and especially investors.