I am not good at short term price prediction, but I have decided to give it another try.
I am predicting that Bitcoin will pretty much hold that 40k line. (I have mentioned that I have a very strong conviction that 30k will hold, but I have raised the floor price, though obviously with less conviction)
SOL, FTM, FTT are trying to find a floor, so there is no rush to get into these coins. Thus it is possible that enough capital will rotate back into BTC.
I think AVAX, XTZ, ATOM, LUNA local tops are pretty much in and I believe they will also fall back to find a floor, which makes me think that more capital will be ready to flood back into BTC.
A BTC upgrade is ready to kick in within a month from now.
20 WMA stands at around 40k. Buying pressure from 30–40k is huge, not just because of the 20 WMA, but BTC has spent so much time changing hands within those regions. Out of 9 months this year, we spent 4 months trading in the 30–40k range. We have to remember that we started this year with BTC at around 30k and we are still at around 40k. Also, volume seems to be picking up too, finally.
Also people are less worried about BTC falling than they did in 2014 & 2018. During 2014 & 2018 so many people said that BTC is dead. I don’t think that is the case this year. As I have mentioned this so many times, people no longer questioning Bitcoin’s legitimacy will make this cycle different from the previous 2 cycles and also this is the same reason why I have changed my mind and say that BTC won’t go down to 18k.
So many alt-coins have reached new ATHs during the past month, which is something that is quite different from 2017.
If alt-coins fly again when BTC tries to move up to 50k, then I believe we might actually need to spend more time and BTC will probably go below 40k, and it will take a few months before people start to lose interest and BTC readies to move back up. However, as long as BTC goes up while alt-coins rest, it will provide BTC enough momentum to push the price up.
Also, it is my guess that if BTC moves up to 55k, it will jump up really fast from there to a new ATH. BTC will move from 55k to 100k probably within a month.