Time to Be Short Term Pessimistic Long Term Optimistic: Financial Markets
While I believe it is good be short term pessimistic and long term optimistic in life, I do think we have reached a…
So, the Nasdaq Index’s parabolic growth has finally ended.
In December 2007 and early 2008, Fed Chairman Bernanke told the Congress that it is not likely that US will enter recession, though he did acknowledge that the economy could flirt with recession.
Bernanke Sees No Recession, but Big Challenge
Visiting Congress to provide an update on the struggling U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he…
However, looking back, the US economy was going through a recession at that time.
I believe the global economy is currently in a similar situation.
Now, what is interesting is that recessions tend to unleash new emerging tech companies that take down incumbents.
Both the dot com bubble and the 2008 recession set an era for various internet companies. The recession during the 1970s and 1980s was a power shift from electronics to software. 1910s recession allowed the power shift from mostly, oil, steel and mining companies to the emergence of Ford, GE, IBM and Bell Labs, setting an era of manufacturing and industrialization. 1940s recession was setting an era for electronics to go mainstream, with television becoming widely available later on. Moreowever, World War II was a catalyst for scientific break throughs in aerospace, electronics, and biological science. (Sadly and yet ironically, wartime provides some of the most impactful scientific achievements.)
Now, blockchain and AI (Deep learning) are two widely popular fields right now and I believe that trend will likely continue for the next 20 years. Now, what I like about blockchain is it’s subtly and controversy. Deep learning is something that has very few debates as so many people agree that it will have huge impact. Blockchain, on the other hand, is highly debated, which is very similar to how the Internet was perceived in the beginning. Even before the Internet became mainstream, there were already computers and telecommunication tools, and it wasn’t quite obvious what new problems that the Internet would solve. It wasn’t even obvious whether it would solve any new problems. With an unknown future, Microsoft targeted Netscape, and believed guarding the gateway to the Internet was the important thing to do. However, real values came out from the networks and platforms. Microsoft ultimately missed quite a lot of opportunities, which is an indication of how hard it was to predict the outcome of the Internet. This very much resembles blockchain, a field that is extremely challenging to navigate with an unpredictable future awaiting.