Could be totally wrong.
Early January 2025: BTC reaches $120K USD.
Mid/Late January 2025: BTC drops back to $95K–100K USD.
April 2025: BTC reaches $160K USD.
May 2025: BTC falls to $100K–120K USD.
Not sure what will happen next.
In 2021, Grayscale’s inflow was the most accurate top indicator (though the Pi Cycle Top indicator did catch the April 2021 peak). For this bull run, I believe ETF inflows will be the most accurate top indicator. Once ETF inflows stop, the BTC top will likely be in. In 2021, the first BTC top occurred one month after Grayscale inflows stopped. I anticipate something similar happening this cycle.
Additionally, the 2022 BTC bear market was triggered by the stock market correction. I’m uncertain when the next stock market correction will occur. If there’s no stock market correction in Q3/Q4 2025, BTC could start moving up again. By October/November 2025, BTC might return to $150K or even higher. However, I do think we will get another stock market correction a year or so from now.
