So, people are still bullish with the crypto market. Over the past year, this euphoric attitude has constantly backfired as people don’t short and the market goes stagnant and then crashes.
Looking at Binance, still the majority of top trades are long (more than 70%). This condition doesn’t look promising for a short squeeze, which means we won’t get to 60k unless we have another flush down. I am guessing once Bitcoin breaks down below 40k, a lot of people will start shorting. Also, fear and greed index is a bit misleading. The best way to measure actual market fear is looking at the future open interests and long position proportion among top traders. I don’t sense fear at all right now.
Thus, I think there is a decent probability that Bitcoin goes below 40k and even below 30k.
If you are buying alt coins that are kind of dead, I would be extremely careful with such purchase though not a financial advice. Coins that are safe to hold for long term for me are FTM, ETH, BTC and SOL, though SOL seems kind of awful to hold at the moment.
Also, just like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, there are moving averages that have perfectly caught 2 bottoms for the past two bear markets. Those two lines actually have a potential to cross this year, unless bitcoin stays above 40k and starts moving up. There is a lot of variables and it is hard to predict if those two line crosses again, but if it does I will post here. When they cross, I plan to go all in into crypto (probably rotate out of BTC and go all in with ETH initially) and just hodl again for at least a couple of years. If the macro market starts going bad, I think Bitcoin could potential drop all the way down to low 20k range.
I just plan to hold as I have other works to do and I do not want to waste my energy and time into this. Even if there is a recession (FYI, Bitcoin has never gone through a marco economic recession, as we never had one. Covid recession was too brief to even consider it a recession), Bitcoin will get to 100k eventually within 5 years from now and I am just fine with that. What this cycle is telling us is that crypto market has gotten quite big and it is becoming harder and harder for Bitcoin to go parabolic. People will need to spend time to sort out promising crypto projects and invest wisely to have a good return. Crypto is becoming more and more like stock trading where you need to find promising companies to invest in.
