Crypto Quick Update
I’ve decided to quckly mentioned about LOOK (LooksRare NFT). I think it is an interesting project, and I actually quite like the project. It is basically a Uniswap for NFT. I’ve been paying attention for a week now and I think it actually has a high potential. I am just worried about the general crypto market trend so I am a bit careful.
For BTC, I think breakdown to below 40k is quite immiment. Most alt coins will probably bleed out. 30k range is extremely likely at the moment. 20k range is possible if the stock market doesn’t do well. With rate hikes guaranteed, probably it is wiser to pay attention to the stock market to get a sense of where the crypto market is headed to. High inflation has never ended well historically.
If BTC trades in the 20k range, the indicator that has tracked the two bottoms during the two bear cycles will probably be able to catch another bottom this time. It is currently predicted to be anywere between 20–30k with the anticipate date at around mid March for BTC to bottom. Still, there is no guarantee that BTC will fall down to this range. I plan to go all in if BTC trades in the 20k range.
At the moment, on-chain metrics are pretty much useless and I wouldn’t rely on them (https://songsari.medium.com/s2f-model-invalidation-on-chain-analysis-invalidationyear-87aea05195be). Derivative market has the full control and it doesn’t look promising. Also, the stock market is now ready for a longer correction (https://songsari.medium.com/?p=3efa9a1c55c1). IXIC seems to be done with its 10 year parabolic move. Currently, I think a drop below 14000 is very like and I think it could drop to 12000–13000 range too. If the correction accelerates, there is no QE this time. So a recession is pretty much guaranteed. So many people are highly exposed to financial markets thanks to COVID and many won’t be able to handle the financial loss if a recession hits back as I am really confident that many are overexposed to the market.
What I am mostly worried about the current economic situation is how rate hikes could trigger a lot of companies to go out of business. Evergrande already showed us how companies have become reckless with investing as money came to easy to borrow. I still think this problem is quite rampant with many other companies, and when rate hikes start to kick in and it is no longer cheap to borrow money, it could actually create a chain reaction that result in multiple bankruptcies. This will result in a real recession.