Tech & Stock Market Evaluation

Following up on my previous post, I am still sticking to my stance. Inflation is nearing its peak and I do not see the current market entering a dot com bubble like recession. While the housing price will continue to come down due to higher mortgage rate and hidden leverages, I think stock market has had enough flushes.

So my stance, which I have metioned before haven’t changed and I do believe 10000 +- 500 for the Nasdaq Index is the ultimate bottom. We have already visited that price point once. We could revisit one more time, but I do not see going below that point.

In terms of crypto, I think 3–6 years from now, ETH will surpass BTC market cap. Also, I wouldn’t try to trade or time the market for crypto. HOLDing is the most efficient investment strategy. I am not so certain if 4 year bull market cycle will even continue as it is becoming too obvious for everyone, and history has repeated shown that things never follow obvious patterns.

Also, I would like to briefly mention about the general deep learning hiring market. Talent acquisition is everything and I am seeing a lot of talented researchers and engineers leaving those tech giants and heading to smaller startups. So, I do think we are now entering a transition period

It is probably due to bureaucracy that is starting to drag down people and making them want to leave, which is a very strong indication that all those tech giants are now past their prime times.

Also, in terms of location, I am seeing Oakland slowly becoming a hub for hardware / robotics startups. This is another indication that the whole tech market is going through a transition. Bay area tech hubs in the 70–80s were densely located in Sunnyvale then it moved to Mountain View/Palo Alto, and it is currently in San Francisco. Now we are seeing another move, now into Oakland and I think Oakland will become an attractive location for startups for the next 10 years.

Self driving startups, which were thought be excellent ideas are actually struggling quite a bit as it is now obvious that the problem is actually exceptionally difficult to solve.

I think successful deep learning startups will be the nonobvious ones. I think attack vector is extremely important for startups to succeed and technology alone won’t cut it.

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