Stock Market Bottom Before Q4 2022
In July 2021, I wrote a post about how the current bull market was about to come to an end.
Following up on my previous post, I am still sticking to my stance. Inflation is nearing its peak and I do not see the current market entering a dot com bubble like recession. While the housing price will continue to come down due to higher mortgage rate and hidden leverages, I think stock market has had enough flushes.
My Long Term Market View
Seems like LUNA is making a lot of headlines today. I am not sure how much changes the team will bring to the project…
So my stance, which I have metioned before haven’t changed and I do believe 10000 +- 500 for the Nasdaq Index is the ultimate bottom. We have already visited that price point once. We could revisit one more time, but I do not see going below that point.
In terms of crypto, I think 3–6 years from now, ETH will surpass BTC market cap. Also, I wouldn’t try to trade or time the market for crypto. HOLDing is the most efficient investment strategy. I am not so certain if 4 year bull market cycle will even continue as it is becoming too obvious for everyone, and history has repeated shown that things never follow obvious patterns.
Also, I would like to briefly mention about the general deep learning hiring market. Talent acquisition is everything and I am seeing a lot of talented researchers and engineers leaving those tech giants and heading to smaller startups. So, I do think we are now entering a transition period
Tech Market Saturation
If you work in tech, you many have already realized that the job market is saturating, especially for new grads. This…
It is probably due to bureaucracy that is starting to drag down people and making them want to leave, which is a very strong indication that all those tech giants are now past their prime times.
Also, in terms of location, I am seeing Oakland slowly becoming a hub for hardware / robotics startups. This is another indication that the whole tech market is going through a transition. Bay area tech hubs in the 70–80s were densely located in Sunnyvale then it moved to Mountain View/Palo Alto, and it is currently in San Francisco. Now we are seeing another move, now into Oakland and I think Oakland will become an attractive location for startups for the next 10 years.
Self driving startups, which were thought be excellent ideas are actually struggling quite a bit as it is now obvious that the problem is actually exceptionally difficult to solve.
I think successful deep learning startups will be the nonobvious ones. I think attack vector is extremely important for startups to succeed and technology alone won’t cut it.