We are currently entering a tech transitional period where the big tech companies will turn into the next IBM, Intel, Qualcomm, and etc. These big tech companies are no longer growth companies, but rather slowly turning into value companies, which will generate stable cash streams, but will soon be eclipsed by the next upcoming tech companies.
Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon are all starting to appear like they’ve passed their prime times. This also means that if you are a new grad, you should be extremely careful about joining them.
In early 2000s, people passed up Google and joined Microsoft. Some may call that to be a stupid decision, but back in those days, I believe it wasn’t obvious which was the right choice to make. Now, I will make a very provocative claim that joining Google, Facebook Apple, Amazon, etc today would be like joining Microsoft and passing up Google offer in early 2000s. The fact that Scott Hassen who wrote the early codebase for Google left the company to pursue his own interests is a very strong indication that Google’s magnitude of success wasn’t clearly obvious. Shel Kaphan who basically wrote the very first codebase of Amazon also has said that current Amazon’s magnitude of success has surpassed way beyond his initial expectation.
It isn’t clear which companies will become the next Google, Amazon or Apple. However, it is very clear that the current big tech companies will turn into slow moving incumbents.
